Feb 17, 2009
Why the Stimulus Probably Won’t Work and How Christians Can Help
Dmitry Orlov, author of The Collapse Gap, offers his unique perspective on the American economy. He doesn’t think the stimulus plan will work and offers the following analysis:
Starting from the very general, what are the current macroeconomic objectives, if you listen to the hot air coming out of Washington at the moment? First: growth, of course! Getting the economy going. We learned nothing from the last huge spike in commodity prices, so let’s just try it again. That calls for economic stimulus, a.k.a. printing money. Let’s see how high the prices go up this time. Maybe this time around we will achieve hyperinflation. Second: Stabilizing financial institutions: getting banks lending – that’s important too. You see, we are just not in enough debt yet, that’s our problem. We need more debt, and quickly! Third: jobs! We need to create jobs. Low-wage jobs, of course, to replace all the high-wage manufacturing jobs we’ve been shedding for decades now, and replacing them with low-wage service sector jobs, mainly ones without any job security or benefits. Right now, a lot of people could slow down the rate at which they are sinking further into debt if they quit their jobs. That is, their job is a net loss for them as individuals as well as for the economy as a whole. But, of course, we need much more of that, and quickly!
He goes on to say…
So, what is there for them to do? Forget “growth,” forget “jobs,” forget “financial stability.” What should their realistic new objectives be? Well, here they are: food, shelter, transportation, and security. Their task is to find a way to provide all of these necessities on an emergency basis, in absence of a functioning economy, with commerce at a standstill, with little or no access to imports, and to make them available to a population that is largely penniless. If successful, society will remain largely intact, and will be able to begin a slow and painful process of cultural transition, and eventually develop a new economy, a gradually de-industrializing economy, at a much lower level of resource expenditure, characterized by a quite a lot of austerity and even poverty, but in conditions that are safe, decent, and dignified. If unsuccessful, society will be gradually destroyed in a series of convulsions that will leave a defunct nation composed of many wretched little fiefdoms. Given its largely depleted resource base, a dysfunctional, collapsing infrastructure, and its history of unresolved social conflicts, the territory of the Former United States will undergo a process of steady degeneration punctuated by natural and man-made cataclysms.
I’ve been wondering if such a scenario is the case. Obama’s language is focusing on growth and getting the economy back to normal, and I don’t believe that is realistic. We’ve pushed our economy to the limit and now it’s contracting. The solution then isn’t to push it back to the brink, but to find a new “norm” for the economy.
That leaves me thinking about Christian communities and churches in this downturn. Could it be that Christians can help lead the way by thinking of using church land to grow food for their congregations and even the larger community, to pool resources so we can break out of our personal consumption downward spiral, and to even explore the possibility of sharing homes or at least property to defray living costs.
It stands to reason that the people whose treasure is in heaven should find a way to thrive and to even lead the way forward in this economic crisis?
